State of the game.

It's been a while readers!  I hadn't forgotten you, I've been taking a long break from blogging and in some ways, checked out of the gambling routine for long periods too.  Not that I haven't been trading, I have been working as hard as ever recently, but I think it's fair to say, the whole premium charge fiasco at Betfair knocked the stuffing out of me and took a lot of the gloss off.  Not that it was particularly glossy to begin with.

Things have changed.  Not just the noticeable stuff - the money missing from my account on a Wednesday (if I'm lucky enough to win, which hasn't always been the case), but there feels to have been a change in attitudes in the markets and this is not just down to the charge.  Initially the purse stings were well and truly tightened due to the economic climate, there seemed fewer people on Betfair.  As time has gone on, liquidity has returned, but in my opinion the average quality of the opposition has rocketed.

This is very apparent on the smaller tennis tournaments.  There are now a significant number of people "courtside" at every tournament these days.  Which in some ways is good, since the markets move a little more predictably, and the scoreline is effectively shown live in the Betfair markets.  This should, in theory be good for me, since I don't rely on speed.  The reality however is that they mop up all the "dead money", selling it back at a discount to the market.  The removal of such money on a regular basis from the markets can only be detrimental to my own personal efforts to play on a level field with other more traditional exchange users.

Saying this, I believe there are some courtsiders who like to take a view, and perhaps this is a more likely direction for courtsiding in the future.  They are more than welcome.

I've struggled for long periods this year and at the end of last, for a few different reasons.  Initally the premium charge really played with my head, would I have to change strategies?  I couldn't resolve how (with my type of P/L) I was going to remain profitable.  I am semi trader, semi punter.  I have up and down periods, then get on great runs.  It appeared to me that really I should have no business being charged, since my lucky runs would now be heavily penalised.

I've been at this game for 7.5 years, and if I'm honest I felt like this was the beginning of the end (for exchanges / Betfair - not for me).  It's disappointing to see the lack of change that has occured since the introduction of the PC (premium charge).  The move to Betdaq has not occured as hoped, though some liquidity has gone their way.

I've also got married in that time (another reason for not posting, though the honeymoon wasn't that long!)... and along with it a re-realisation of what the important things are in life.

Combine a marriage and the PC, and you do begin to wonder if this toil is worthwhile.  And my conclusion is, yes!  But only after much soul searching, time off and a recharge of my batteries.  Ive done a lot of reading during this time, I've learnt a lot, but nothing I have learnt really measures up to something I read on Peter Webb's blog about your heart having to be in trading to make it work. (Or was it someone else writing about Peter..)

I compared myself 7 years ago to earlier this year, the difference was huge.  I had a hunger for the job like nothing else back in those days, I would trade at work, come home and trade for anther 5 hours, I couldn't get enough of it... it was an all consuming passion.  This year, frankly I couldn't be arsed with it, there were distractions that were much more appealing, a life away from the computer that was more enjoyable and yes - I have made enough money in that time to be 'comfortable' for some time.  But not, crucially, to retire on.  So, it's back to work, with new goals, particularly now that I have 'our' future to think about too.

I have let go of the PC as a distraction.  I've put into place some extra commission generating strategies, and refocused.  My goal initially was to dedicate myself to the 6 week period that includes the French Open and Wimbledon.  And what a French Open it was.  I'm very happy Federer was able to claim a French for the set, he deserves it, and he got the monkey well and truely off his back.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him reclaim Wimbledon now with the pressure off.

Nadal's shock exit stunned me for a couple of days.  I played the match cautiously, it was one of those where I didn't quite believe Soderling was going to do it, but the prices were always good on him rather than Nadal, I sat out for the most part only having a small bet on Soderling as he neared the finish line.  Nadal fell foul of dropping his groundstrokes far too short, partly because he was retrieving so many shots, but also there was a lack of penetration to his shots, too much spin.  It reminded me of when he struggles on hard courts at times.

I also very happy Kuznetsova won the ladies title.  She aways struck me as an underacheiver, someone who normally suffers with nerves and pressure.  When she hits with a relaxed and controlled freedom, she's great to watch.  Safina had a complete mare in the final.

What next?  Queens begins today, I think the weather will be good for some of it, though it looks dodgy for this week at times.  Grass court tennis is a different mindset, lots of held service games.

I also want to keep the blog more updated, and be more linky.  There's a load of fantastic blogs started up in the time I've been away, I'll be posting links up to those soon.  I hope your trading has faired more consistantly than mine.

Comments

[Mark Iverson]

Hi Matt,

Great to have you back and congratulations on getting married - I can only imagine the honeymoon you had!

This bit of your post also made me laugh:

"I have made enough .....But not, crucially, to retire on"

:-)

Some of us can only dream I guess!

Catch-up with you soon and I'll no doubt be battling away against you in the Big Brother market - is it me or have they made all the housemates likeable this year?

All the best mate,

Mark

[Philip K.]

How random that I added your RSS even though you haven't updated your blog in over a year and then you come out with a new post. I enjoy your writing. Keep it up.

[Matt]

Hey Mark, good to see you are still about! I saw you ended your blog, I must say, I miss it, I still read as much as I can on google reader.

Hmmm BigBro, I'm triyng to steer clear as much as possible, though I couldn't help watching the opening night. Cairon I liked, a few of the others seemed half sensible, but I can't say I'm gonna play this heavily.

Drop me an email ;)

[Matt]

Hi Philip, thanks for adding my feed - that was probably quite a punt you took, considering I haven't updated for so long! ..and it came in. I'll endeavor to keep things going, I already have a post ready to run tomorrow at 10am.

[Philip K.]

Hey Matt,

I know how hard it is to write new material and I'm surprised you didn't resort to more linky materials earlier. I do that all the time on my blog at investorgamblereconomist.com.

You could always resort to writing more frequently, but with less words per entry.

Anyway, you guys don't know how easy you have it with online gambling. Nothing's been the same in the US since the UIGEA. We have issues like funding that the people in the UK might take for granted.

[Matt]

I've been reading your blog Philip, it's excellent, especially the last article, which I'll be responding to / adding to... I thoroughly agree with what you are saying.

We are (I hesitate to say) 'lucky' in the UK to have the laws we have with regard to gambling and tax. I didn't want to say 'lucky' as I feel they are the right laws with regard to this past-time we engage in - and it's difficult to call something like gambling anything other than a past-time, since it has such a unique set of psychological effects on the people doing it. But then, when not having to pay tax comes into the equation and I suppose if you can make it pay, then that is a fortunate situation.

Is there any chance the new government will change things for you?

I am going to go through adding links later on, yours will be included. Also you are right re: shorter posts, it keeps the interest going without taking too much time, it's just when I have something to say, I like to cover all bases.. I think it's quite easy if you are simply posting up an image of today's P/L and talking about it, but I've never wanted to do that. Though I plan on posting a lot more responses to other people's articles.

[Philip K.]

Thanks for the positive feedback. The UK is also great because you have access to places like Pinnacle Sports, and don't forget the various online bonuses that are still possible in the UK. I also hear various rumblings that the Brick and Mortar casinos over there have a few "soft" games.

The prediction market Intrade puts the odds of changing the US gambling laws at 33%. I think that's about as good as it gets.

I'd like to add that blog posts are somewhat like American diets. People rather have quantity over quality. :)

[Alistair Hamilton]

Hi Matt,

Just catching up with the fact that your blogging again. Good to see you back - getting married is a pathetic excuse! :) Congratulations!

I look forward to reading your very useful insights into the world of trading.

Alistair
Bet Your Life