Rise of the horse racing trader.

Several blogs and websites have caught my attention while I've been away.  A common feature of these is that they relate to trading horse racing markets pre-off.  ie.  Catching price movements in the market and closing their position before the race begins.

This trading is of course, nothing new, it's been going on on the exchanges for years, but recently there seems to have been something of a tipping point in the online community.  This is perhaps evidence of the cumulative effects of dedicated software, forums and seminars / courses that are being run (particularly by BetAngel and Peter Webb).  It appears there are a growing number of successful individuals coming from these courses, though that is of course difficult to gauge since we only hear about those that are doing well.  The others tend to keep their heads down.

Not that this is a criticism of the courses themselves, or of horse racing trading.  I'm sure the courses are excellent, and if I'm honest I'm tempted to go on one myself, even if I believe their would be little I could learn.  What I do find interesting though is the sort of profits begin realised by certain people in such tight markets, especially as it's something I've never really been tempted to try.  Personally I have always prefered slightly looser markets, with much larger potential movements in odds, my belief being that I can make much more from these larger swings than I could in the racing markets.

This I still believe is true, it's difficult for example to see how someone could make more, or trade more perfectly (from what we are lead to believe) on horse racing than the increasingly well known Adam Heathcote .  Yet it is possible to make much more than he does, trading sports with perhaps a similar level of skill that Adam possess with the horse markets, and I do believe he is extremely skilled in what he does.

In fact it's my opinion that anyone who can eek out a profit trading horse racing markets consistantly is very skilled, they have my respect.  Not only do you need some technical trading knowledge, but (depending on their ambition) also a fairly large amount of horse racing market knowledge too (this is what I lack).  For example I am fairly sure the different types of races are likely to move price in a different fashion to one another - I wouldn't have a clue how, neither do I have any idea what a 'horse playing up' looks like!

Something I do find fascinating is the use of technical analysis tools and charts in the same way they might be used in the city.  This is something I've been doing to a lesser degree for years, but these guys seem use them much more actively.

Anyway, my intention here is to point you in the direction of some interesting blogs, the writers of which like to trade horse racing (among other things).  Some of them post their profits, some make more than others, but that doesn't diminish the skill level or interest of those that make less, arguably it's just as / more important to read the blogs written by people who aren't doing so well.  A lot can be learnt from reading about other people's trading exploits.

• Drifters and Steamers
• Don't Give Up Your Day Job
• PreRace Trader
• The Betfair Scalper
• Peter Webb Here I Come!
• PreRace Trader 1
• Full Time Trading - A Step into the Lions Den 
• Betfair Trading Mind Games
• Rick Ford's Sports Trading Blog
• Make a Splash

There are plenty of others, sorry if I've missed you out, drop me a comment and I'll add you in.  I'll be adding these to the blog links in time too.     

Comments

[Mind Games]

Hi Matt,

That's an interesting article. Thanks for the link.

Do you really think that much higher profits are possible trading sports than what Adam Heathcote is achieving trading pre-race horses? I understand that the swings in-play can be huge, but then the risk is higher? Cheers, MG

[phil]

adamheathcote.blogspot.com is better than any of them this one included and i dont trade!

[Matt]

Hi MG, no problems with the link, I'll put a permanent one on the side later on, your blog is a good read.

Do I really think you can make more on sports? I wouldn't post it if I didn't know (by experience). Yes the risk is higher, variance is greater (though not always) but the return potential is vastly different. There comes a time when Adam is limited in what he can acheive by the liquidity and price movement in the markets he trades. This is not to take anything away from Adam, how is clearly an outstanding trader. (Much to the annoyance of certain anti trader posters on the Betfair forum :) )

[Matt]

It is a good read Phil no doubt, that's why I linked to it in the post.

[Philip K.]

There's a bit of tradeoff between big sports and lesser known markets.

The sports markets are harder to beat, but if you have an edge you can place bigger bet sizes.

For obscure markets, the % edge might be higher, but they don't take as much action.

Fezzik, quite possibly the best US sports bettor ever, goes so far as to say the large markets are too efficient and difficult to beat. Instead, players should focus on more obscure bets like props and lesser known sports. Food for thought.