Punt.com - A Blog About Gambling by a Professional Gambler.

The Wimbledon roof and a hoax £20m winner.

No blog entries for a little while, you were probably thinking I'd disappeared again.  It's been a busy week, maybe my busiest of the year, anyone getting the time to post blog entries as well as trade for 10 hours a day has my admiration for the their dedication... They also spend too long on the computer!

Yesterday saw the first 'in-play' usage of the World's most expensive roof at Wimbledon.  Though they were a little hasty in closing it.  The Wimbledon cheeses must have been like kids with a new toy, it was always going to get closed at the first drop of rain, the Chairman probably had his finger hovering over the button as the first cloud appeared. 

To then keep it closed for the rest of the day was a surprise, but they got lucky when Murray's match went on longer than might have been expected (Wawrinka played well, but never took half the chances he might have).  I have to say I got the feeling the roof affected Murray to begin with, his pre-match (mental) prep would have been for an open roof, his 'onboard computer' (as Sam Smith would commentate) taking a while to figure out the change in conditions - Set one over.

So we ended up with the first 'night match' at Wimbledon.  The acoustics were completely different, very loud and echoey, perfect for creating a great atmosphere for the home favourite.  They should do more night matches imo, it was quite a spectacle.  Will they?  I doubt it... The company line is that it is an outdoor tournament.

I thought that it was perhaps a little easier for the server inside, the speed of the court looked the same though - incredibly slow!   Or maybe it's just me, but the courts look to be playing slower than ever this year.  I tweeted (Follow Me) a day or two ago that I don't buy into the courts getting quicker as they get older.  The ball simply bounces higher, the dryness allowing more spin to take grip and thus the ball 'sits up' - they get slower the deeper into the tournament we go.  I would think they are slower than the US Open quite easily.  Much is made of the change from Roland Garros clay to Wimbledon grass , it's not so much the speed anymore, it's the height of the bounce and the type of bounce.  I seem to recall a 27 stroke rally in Murray's first game yesterday!

Onto our £20m hoax in the News of the World!  This was great if you caught it, unfortunately the story has now been taken down from the NotW website, because it is fiction!  (They don't print fiction do they?)  Anyone who read the story with any knowledge would have spotted this anyway, it was laughable.  You can catch up with some of the claims made by the millionaire over at Scott's blog, along with the statement made by Betfair in response.

Ladies quarters today, I don't have much opinion on the matches, other than Venus should destroy Aggie Radwanska.  I'm concerned that Azarenka could push Serena, though I'm on both of them outright, most of it is on Serena, I see this as her toughest test next to Venus, though I am fairly confident Serena would take care of a match with her Sister.

My men's outright book is looking good.  I backed Roger at the the start, as well as Murray, Hewitt and Karlovic.  Got out of Murray yesterday, having traded back and forth on him through the tournament, I'm a little surprised he has remained around 4.1, yesterday wasn't a confidence builder, though I think the general sentiment is that he'll have less difficulty with Ferrero than Wawrinka.  I'm not sure on that one, JCF is loving the slow courts.

Market also looks to have some concerns with Karlovic and Fed.  Which is good for me, I will look to do something with my very large green on Karlovic at some point.  Happy trading..

Late start to Wimbledon for me.

I missed the first days play at Wimbledon, because I went to watch!  (Thanks to Betfair for the invite - you still won't get any favours from me on here though ;)  So it was a free day out, but was it really free?  Probably not, it was most definitely expensive - with the biggest and most profitable tournament of the year on terrestrial TV, this is where I have made the most for the last 4/5 years.  So, it wasn't an easy decision to go, but I do believe it is good karma to enjoy the spoils, there's an awful lot of people that would kill to get onto center court.  Though apparently not some of the people in the box who had the US Open golf on, shocking!

Anyway, it's day 2 already, and I'm not even warmed up.  I have an outright pick in the ladies after seeing her play yesterday, I can't see anyone getting past Serena, 3.8 yesterday was good enough for me (3.65 now).  In the men's I'm on Fed and Murray from last week, Fed's price progressing well, Murray slightly backwards.

I watched Djokovic take on Benneteau yesterday, he looks a little fragile mentally at times, his body language was not confident in the first two sets, after that Benne got tired and Djoko's fitness looked unusually good.  Effortless in the end, but lacked a lot when compared to Fed.

So many matches today, but first stop for me is the Chiropractor - is it me or do a lot of us bloggers have back problems?  And isn't David Ferrer a little short against Kevin Kim (1.15/16) ?  Maybe.

Another dodgy tennis match spells trouble.

I'm slow writing about this, the Hernandez v Koellerer match earlier in the week created quite a fuss in the media after some seriously dodgy betting patterns occured pre-match.  Some of the coverage was laughable (William Hill suggesting suspicions were aroused after a £4000 bet), but most of it was alarming for those of us honest in-running bettors.  This sort of thing only gives those who seek to limit in running betting more ammo.  Let's hope the integrity teams at the various bookies were able to trace those that placed the bets, though these things are incredibly difficult to prove.

Further excellent coverage and screenshots over at Scott's blog, Sportismadeforbetting.

Wimbledon draw, in case you missed it..

..(And it's quite likely you did miss it), was made "live" on their Twitter page.  I say "live", but some readers should be warned that some twitter feeds are delayed. ;) 

Seriously though, the biggest (and best) Grand Slam tennis event, publicising it's draw on twitter!?  You cannot be serious!?  Apparently they are.  What we received was a mangled, mis-typed bunch of around 7/8 select matches from the entire men's and women's draw.  Hardly professional, or informative.

In previous years we have at least heard the names coming out of the hat on Radio Wimbledon.  Even if we were treated to laughable commentary at the same time, this was vastly superior to this year's draw.  Surely this should be on TV, if they can show the FA cup draws, then surely Wimbledon, the BBC put such effort into their coverage, this should be a shoe-in.

Does anyone know who "Josh Goofa" is?  Or why on earth we were told that Safina could have a potential "showdown" with Vaidisova in the 2nd round?  Do they follow tennis?

Importantly, it seems Djokovic and Federer are in the same half, leaving Murray and the potentially injured Nadal in the other.  Nadal will announce whether he intends to play today after an exhibition match against Wawrinka.

New balls please!

Radio 4 programme on corruption in sports betting..

Interesting radio 4 programme on sports betting corruption and match fixing in football and tennis on bbc iplayer.  I'm listening in right now as I missed it last night.  I believe these programmes are available for the next 7 days, or maybe longer if they have changed their archiving policy.  Give it a listen.

Further reaction over at Green All Over, depending on what I hear I might add my own post here later.

Expect problems with expectations.

Something I've really noticed during the last few months (and from time to time in the past) are the problems that my own expectations cause me when I'm trading, and probably in other areas of life.  To expect is to open yourself to the unexpected!  Crazy how stupidly simple that is isn't it.. without expectations, there is no unexpected and thus a huge chunk of trading pain is removed.

I remember reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Taleb in which he would call negative experiences in the markets, emotional "pangs".  These I'm sure are very real, we've all suffered when we've lost, if you place enough attention on a price I'm sure it's possible to suffer a 'pang' on the loss of a single tic.  It struck me that, these really only occur when something doesn't live up to your expectations. 

Yet this is highly counter intuitive.  How do you enter a trade or a bet without some form of expectation?  The answer of course is from a probablistic mindset.  You reduce decisions down to their probabilities of going one way or the other, then compare the implied odds in the market.  That's easy to type, and not easy to do consistantly, whether you believe in it or not.

The above paragraph also suggests it's possible to gauge where the market will be at various times.  Another expectation which is rarely perfect, since markets (and the events they are based upon) are random entities.  Anyone / anything can destroy the position of the market in a blink... with this in mind, perhaps it's best we expect the unexpectable!  That way we'll still be in the right frame of mind to act appropriately when it happens.  And while we do that, do our level best to estimate those probabilities each time we enter a trade.

Another one bites..

It's always a sorry sight to see another blog biting the dust.  I have to say it took some guts to post the loss he took, and particularly how it happened.  But he also did the rest of us a service, it's a reminder how fragile the human mind is when it comes to gambling, and it's certainly not a reflection on him personally.  He makes a very good point in his post, trading and gambling for a profit is not as easy as it appears online.

There are a lot of videos about showing how to trade a profit and they make it look damn easy (and it is a very small percentage of the time!).  What we don't see are videos depicting losses.  People simply don't post them,  I guess they don't serve a purpose when you are trying to sell something or make yourself look credible. 

Surely it's time we started posting some losses, and perhaps some commentary on why we lost.  It's difficult learning anything without failure and the inevitable drawdown.  No one's perfect.  There's a big gap in the market for money-losing videos it seems.

Losing while winning.

There's an excellent article over at Philip's blog which describes one of the trickiest occupational hazards we gambler's and traders face.  Namely, the ability to be losing money whilst executing our edge.  Losing runs, which have a positive expectancy, can be one of the hardest things to deal with mentally.  But only if you don't 100% believe;

1. That you have an edge.  You need to have done the analysis, the statistics, the maths, prove it.
2. That the results you are witnessing and going to witness are randomly distributed.  As Mark Douglas says, "there is a random distribution of wins and loses that defines an edge."

Granted these two aren't always easy to accept.  1) If we are trading, and trading in a fast moving market it's not straight forward sometimes to know we have that positive expectancy.  Buying and selling can be a messy affair if we let it get away from ourselves.  We have to keep what we are doing as clean as possible, quantify each trade.  Trading rapidly is fine, as long as our primary focus is to open and close at spots that offer a probablistic edge.

Point 2) We're all familiar with losing runs, you start to question what you are doing.  Again, quantify everything, manage your bank roll properly, and... see point 1.

Perhaps a follow up article might be "Winning while losing"...

Rise of the horse racing trader.

Several blogs and websites have caught my attention while I've been away.  A common feature of these is that they relate to trading horse racing markets pre-off.  ie.  Catching price movements in the market and closing their position before the race begins.

This trading is of course, nothing new, it's been going on on the exchanges for years, but recently there seems to have been something of a tipping point in the online community.  This is perhaps evidence of the cumulative effects of dedicated software, forums and seminars / courses that are being run (particularly by BetAngel and Peter Webb).  It appears there are a growing number of successful individuals coming from these courses, though that is of course difficult to gauge since we only hear about those that are doing well.  The others tend to keep their heads down.

Not that this is a criticism of the courses themselves, or of horse racing trading.  I'm sure the courses are excellent, and if I'm honest I'm tempted to go on one myself, even if I believe their would be little I could learn.  What I do find interesting though is the sort of profits begin realised by certain people in such tight markets, especially as it's something I've never really been tempted to try.  Personally I have always prefered slightly looser markets, with much larger potential movements in odds, my belief being that I can make much more from these larger swings than I could in the racing markets.

This I still believe is true, it's difficult for example to see how someone could make more, or trade more perfectly (from what we are lead to believe) on horse racing than the increasingly well known Adam Heathcote .  Yet it is possible to make much more than he does, trading sports with perhaps a similar level of skill that Adam possess with the horse markets, and I do believe he is extremely skilled in what he does.

In fact it's my opinion that anyone who can eek out a profit trading horse racing markets consistantly is very skilled, they have my respect.  Not only do you need some technical trading knowledge, but (depending on their ambition) also a fairly large amount of horse racing market knowledge too (this is what I lack).  For example I am fairly sure the different types of races are likely to move price in a different fashion to one another - I wouldn't have a clue how, neither do I have any idea what a 'horse playing up' looks like!

Something I do find fascinating is the use of technical analysis tools and charts in the same way they might be used in the city.  This is something I've been doing to a lesser degree for years, but these guys seem use them much more actively.

Anyway, my intention here is to point you in the direction of some interesting blogs, the writers of which like to trade horse racing (among other things).  Some of them post their profits, some make more than others, but that doesn't diminish the skill level or interest of those that make less, arguably it's just as / more important to read the blogs written by people who aren't doing so well.  A lot can be learnt from reading about other people's trading exploits.

• Drifters and Steamers
• Don't Give Up Your Day Job
• PreRace Trader
• The Betfair Scalper
• Peter Webb Here I Come!
• PreRace Trader 1
• Full Time Trading - A Step into the Lions Den 
• Betfair Trading Mind Games
• Rick Ford's Sports Trading Blog
• Make a Splash

There are plenty of others, sorry if I've missed you out, drop me a comment and I'll add you in.  I'll be adding these to the blog links in time too.     

State of the game.

It's been a while readers!  I hadn't forgotten you, I've been taking a long break from blogging and in some ways, checked out of the gambling routine for long periods too.  Not that I haven't been trading, I have been working as hard as ever recently, but I think it's fair to say, the whole premium charge fiasco at Betfair knocked the stuffing out of me and took a lot of the gloss off.  Not that it was particularly glossy to begin with.

Things have changed.  Not just the noticeable stuff - the money missing from my account on a Wednesday (if I'm lucky enough to win, which hasn't always been the case), but there feels to have been a change in attitudes in the markets and this is not just down to the charge.  Initially the purse stings were well and truly tightened due to the economic climate, there seemed fewer people on Betfair.  As time has gone on, liquidity has returned, but in my opinion the average quality of the opposition has rocketed.

This is very apparent on the smaller tennis tournaments.  There are now a significant number of people "courtside" at every tournament these days.  Which in some ways is good, since the markets move a little more predictably, and the scoreline is effectively shown live in the Betfair markets.  This should, in theory be good for me, since I don't rely on speed.  The reality however is that they mop up all the "dead money", selling it back at a discount to the market.  The removal of such money on a regular basis from the markets can only be detrimental to my own personal efforts to play on a level field with other more traditional exchange users.

Saying this, I believe there are some courtsiders who like to take a view, and perhaps this is a more likely direction for courtsiding in the future.  They are more than welcome.

I've struggled for long periods this year and at the end of last, for a few different reasons.  Initally the premium charge really played with my head, would I have to change strategies?  I couldn't resolve how (with my type of P/L) I was going to remain profitable.  I am semi trader, semi punter.  I have up and down periods, then get on great runs.  It appeared to me that really I should have no business being charged, since my lucky runs would now be heavily penalised.

I've been at this game for 7.5 years, and if I'm honest I felt like this was the beginning of the end (for exchanges / Betfair - not for me).  It's disappointing to see the lack of change that has occured since the introduction of the PC (premium charge).  The move to Betdaq has not occured as hoped, though some liquidity has gone their way.

I've also got married in that time (another reason for not posting, though the honeymoon wasn't that long!)... and along with it a re-realisation of what the important things are in life.

Combine a marriage and the PC, and you do begin to wonder if this toil is worthwhile.  And my conclusion is, yes!  But only after much soul searching, time off and a recharge of my batteries.  Ive done a lot of reading during this time, I've learnt a lot, but nothing I have learnt really measures up to something I read on Peter Webb's blog about your heart having to be in trading to make it work. (Or was it someone else writing about Peter..)

I compared myself 7 years ago to earlier this year, the difference was huge.  I had a hunger for the job like nothing else back in those days, I would trade at work, come home and trade for anther 5 hours, I couldn't get enough of it... it was an all consuming passion.  This year, frankly I couldn't be arsed with it, there were distractions that were much more appealing, a life away from the computer that was more enjoyable and yes - I have made enough money in that time to be 'comfortable' for some time.  But not, crucially, to retire on.  So, it's back to work, with new goals, particularly now that I have 'our' future to think about too.

I have let go of the PC as a distraction.  I've put into place some extra commission generating strategies, and refocused.  My goal initially was to dedicate myself to the 6 week period that includes the French Open and Wimbledon.  And what a French Open it was.  I'm very happy Federer was able to claim a French for the set, he deserves it, and he got the monkey well and truely off his back.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him reclaim Wimbledon now with the pressure off.

Nadal's shock exit stunned me for a couple of days.  I played the match cautiously, it was one of those where I didn't quite believe Soderling was going to do it, but the prices were always good on him rather than Nadal, I sat out for the most part only having a small bet on Soderling as he neared the finish line.  Nadal fell foul of dropping his groundstrokes far too short, partly because he was retrieving so many shots, but also there was a lack of penetration to his shots, too much spin.  It reminded me of when he struggles on hard courts at times.

I also very happy Kuznetsova won the ladies title.  She aways struck me as an underacheiver, someone who normally suffers with nerves and pressure.  When she hits with a relaxed and controlled freedom, she's great to watch.  Safina had a complete mare in the final.

What next?  Queens begins today, I think the weather will be good for some of it, though it looks dodgy for this week at times.  Grass court tennis is a different mindset, lots of held service games.

I also want to keep the blog more updated, and be more linky.  There's a load of fantastic blogs started up in the time I've been away, I'll be posting links up to those soon.  I hope your trading has faired more consistantly than mine.