A punt.com Christmas message & review of 2007.

Well, it's been a while.  Apologies and also thanks to those that have so clearly continued to check back to this page for new entries in the time I've been away. 

Another year has passed us all by, and what a year it has been..  I don't think I've ever crammed as much into 12 months as I have done this year.  Many trips away, all over the world, New Zealand, New York, Portugal (twice), Sweden..  all for pleasure I must add and not work.  Some may think I've taken it easy this year, and although at times they could be right, in the times I have worked - I worked very hard, and not always with satisfying results, though certainly with many lessons.

Although I've spent many times on the blog bemoaning the solitude and boredom of working alone and being something of an outsider, I do know how lucky I am to be in this position and to continue to be in this position.  This year has had some stark reminders about how fragile an existence the professional gambler's career can be.. it is said by some that all gamblers / traders are terminal, we fight a continual battle within to keep this termination from occuring.  Many it seems succomb eventually, it serves to pay close attention when it does, no one is safe.

The idea of having 'time off' for the pro gambler is perhaps one that displays the relative health of ones mentality (and probably ones bank account too)..  though without one, you don't achieve the other.  Time off is essential to good performance, time off is also tricky to manage when you have a near constant stream of gambling opportunities coming at you.  The gambler in you wants to stay home to trade, sense, mental and physical well-being dictates otherwise...  it's for this reason that one might call 'time off' one of the fairest indicators of a gambler's psychological health.

More critical is the  relationship between time off and losing runs..  Do you follow a losing run by working harder, or do you restore mental balance with some time off ?  If you work harder and continue to lose, the pressure of having put in more hours will only hurt the cause more.  There's something special about the Human mind when it's given time to mull over the experiences you've fed it recently.. particularly if you are looking for answers.  Never giving yourself and your mind the time to perform this function will inhibit your chances of learning greatly.  I don't claim to understand what's going on here, but I think most people will have appreciated at times the positive effects giving something some time to settle, the mist can mysteriously clear without you actually doing much at all.

This year more than any other re-established for me the importance of process over profits (or losses).  I had a lot of streaks (good and bad).  I put this down to a few things, thinking about money and also spending a lot of time learning, testing and changing strategies.  This takes a lot of time, as a gambler you don't really know if something is working until you have a decent set of data - and even then you are at the mercy of randomness.  Data in this case being your P&Ls, the tendency to watch them perhaps a little easier when trying or changing strategies and in large part - watching profits and changing strategies tend to cause each other.

But, I think it's been worthwhile, come November I felt I could settle on something which encompassed all I had learnt in the previous 12 months.  November not really being the ideal time to become settled with the season finishing at the end of that Month.  Still, it has me looking forward to next year, the season being only a week away.

Not only did I settle on a strategy, but I defined all my risks and come up with a fool proof method of handling my risk point by point... a defined risk should be the backbone of any trading plan..  I have one, finally.  Had I been naive to not have one before ?- definitely, I don't mind admiting that.  I've always been a sensible person (my nickname is 'steady' afterall), but having all of these things defined really does take the pressure off and focus the mind on the process of executing the plan.  2008, will hopefully see my direction head firmly away from chopping and changing, and turn towards working hard and carrying out what I have planned.

It's been an interesting year on the blog too.  I began this blog one year ago, not knowing what to expect from it or myself writing it.  I have to say I've enjoyed it, though as my out of head post suggested, I think it's occasionally a hinderance writing about what I'm learning all the time!  I'd like to thank all of the people that took the time to comment on my postings and email me too, I really appreciate that..  also the other bloggers that have been writing steadily online, you are a constant source of interest, some of you have done very well this year, I wish you continued success.

So what of the blog in 2008?  The frequency of postings slowed towards the end of this year, partly due to me taking time off and partly because it was time for me to focus solely on producing a more complete plan of my strategy.  I didn't want to have to think much about anything else and this is probably going to be the case in 2008.  Expect fewer postings next year, perhaps one a month or one every fortnight to be the norm.  I expect these will be longer pieces though with plenty of good food for thought.  I may well post something in between if I really need to get something published. 

A couple of figures from 2007 seeing as people ask me a lot..  Largest win of the year; £37000, Serena Williams beating Hantuchova at Wimbledon, largest loss in 2007; £31000 Henman beating Tursunov at the US Open (win rounded down, loss rounded up as I don't have my spreadsheet through from Betfair yet..)

Time now to relax and enjoy the festivities (and my Betfair hamper;), all the best to my friends out there, and good luck for 2008! 

Matt

Comments

[George]

I like your blog very much. It is very interesting. I wish you Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

[Pete Nordsted]

Welcome back Matt I have missed your posts all the best for the new year and I along with many others look forward to your future inputs.

All the very best

Pete Nordsted

[Mark Iverson]

Another great post Matt.

Thanks again for your guidance this year, it meant a lot and who knows, maybe one day I can enjoy a largest win figure like that :-)

All the best and have a great Christmas!

Mark

[Sand Racer]

Cheers Matt.

Happy christmas.

[The Gambler.]

Welcome back, and Happy New Year.

The Gambler. :-).

[paul jones]

Thanks Matt and I also enjoy your blog -- in fact for me it is th best one that I have found. The october 24 entry on " wanting to win" is pinned on my door! I do not trade tennis but bet in unusual markets - still i find your analysis really useful.

Paul

[Gareth]

Happy New Year Matt. Hope 2008 is properous for all of us in the blogosphere!

All the best

Gareth