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Stimulation

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October 25, 2007

Out of head and onto blog = empty head?

Just a quick post this evening about something I've been noticing more and more each time I make a blog entry.  What I'm writing is not necessarily staying in my head once I've written it.  Not exactly an ideal situation, and not what I had in mind when I began the blog at all!  What I'm writing here is supposed to help me as much as it seems to be helping a few of the readers, lately it's been more of the opposite. 

What seems to be happening is that once an idea has been published, it's leaving my head, and has to be re-learnt again!  I actually seem to drop the ideas on a personal level once I've put them online!  Crazy.  I need to give this some thought, why is this happening?..  First thought: perhaps the blog is appealing a little too much to my ego than it should.  Am I feeding my ego too much here?

A lot of people think gamblers and big egos go hand in hand..  the stereotypical high roller is what they picture the professional gambler to be.  Successful gamblers and traders know the dangers of the ego, I would say those that do win are much more likely to have humility, and be willing to admit they are wrong much sooner than the ordinary punter.  They don't see this as anything to do with pride or shame, as is the case in so many walks of ordinary life... definitely pencil this topic in for another posting.

A few things to ponder anyway, not that it spells the end of the blog, but I certainly need to be more careful about dumping ideas here and not being focused on retaining them for personal use!

Idea for the week - you can't beat good pricing. (note to self:  don't forget this!)

October 14, 2007

Keeping the work / life balance, pressure avoidance.

..Or should I say, the gambling / life balance.  I've always known there was an importance to maintaining a good balance to life, but I hadn't realised the real reason why, how the mechanism works, until this week.

The importance of how I live my life away from the computer and how it affects my gambling and trading has always been obvious to me.  Having a life away from gambling keeps perspective and reality in check, staying healthy and fit maintains trading stamina and a clear head.  The importance of how and when I should take time away, and why that matters has been less than clear, in fact, not something I've spent much time considering. 

I've always been into figuring out how our heads work, how the various thinking mechanisms tick, inputs and outputs.  Though obviously nothing is ever clear cut with the human brain and our emotions, we're hardly a rational species at times.  But happenings this week made a few things clearer as to why it's important to do things away from gambling, and I'm not just saying this because I had a few losses!  ...I have losses every week...(though fewer than my wins - if I'm fortunate!)

This week saw plenty of work on offer, and I was in the mood to work, but I've had my eye on an event I wanted to attend this week in the city, nothing to do with work at all.  Now I could have gone on Thursday, in fact I had planned to do so when I woke up, but of course, there was work available, good work at that and so I stayed home thinking I would head out later... time kept ticking of course and I ended up staying in later and later, in the end, not going out at all.

All the while, it was playing on my mind that I really wanted to go out.  As I worked I had a few losses - the quality of which got worse as the day progressed.  The first losses were of the acceptable kind, good bets, well thought out and staked accordingly, fortune transpired that my player simply didn't win and that's fine.  But as time progressed, and I began thinking more about wasting my time staying in (especially as the sun was shining), I became distracted. Unknowingly, I was becoming more preoccupied with making my day pay it's worth for staying in.

Whenever you want to make gambling pay, more specifically - the time you spend gambling, you are instantly going to commit a heap of mental errors.  You place impatient bets, you get concerned about losing, enough to be tempted to chase losses, decisions aren't arrived at in the same way they would normally be, the list is endless.  We all know there's a million ways to lose in this game, not many ways to win, this situation is not exactly helping your cause.

The more I reflected on this on Thursday night, the more I realised how simple this really is.  If you don't want to work, if there's somewhere you'd rather be, stop working and go!  Clearly "work" in this case means gambling, I'm not suggesting you leave the office because you'd rather be playing golf, not unless you want to lose your job.  What I am saying is, if you'd rather be doing something else than gambling, you should do it.  The alternative opens the door to too much concern with time and it's wastage.

Come Friday morning, I decided a clear plan was called for.  The event I wanted to attend was still going on, I decided I would work until midday, then go, regardless of work.  Maintaining my life balance was of higher priority than placing a few more bets.  I have to say, it worked great, I was relaxed in the morning, I knew what I was doing and had a few hours in which to focus properly.  Equally as important, I avoided betting in a weakened mental state in the afternoon - avoiding losses.  Not only this, but my work / life balance was restored, perspective regained and I was ready once again to focus on Saturday morning with a clear mind.

There's two parts to this then, the 'time' element - anytime you are placed in a situation where you feel you 'have to' make the time you spend gambling pay, you are operating in less than optimal mental state.  And the other part is to do with maintaining perspective, recharging the mental batteries and reminding yourself of why you work, and why you focus properly when you do.  So much of our gambling and trading mentality is about positioning yourself in the right situations to think properly, doing stuff you want to do away from gambling, when you want to do them, is vital to our success.

Time, in gambling, is to be spent doing things properly and not meant to be used as some yard stick to measure whether you are finding it worthwhile or not - you can figure that out after a meaningful number of bets have been placed or time has passed, ie. several months.  Kind of paradoxical I know, but that is the correct attitude - 'staying in the present' is a more commonly used, easily understood description.   If you find you can't spend time doing the right things, then reduce the time you aim to spend, and commit to work properly for the entire time.

The difficult thing in gambling,if you are losing then you feel like spending even more time, working even harder until you have the money back.  But where does it end?  To what end are you going to spend all this time?  I have a friend who after having some losses, withdrew himself into work to such an extent that he stopped going out, ceased to keep up with friends and worryingly, was close to not even looking after himself.  Clearly, it could be easy to say he has a problem with his gambling, I'm not really commenting on that here - he may or may not, I'm reserving opinion, but what is apparent, when you analyse the time spent, is that he is not making any progress at all - just the opposite.

He was going round in circles, he would win for a while, then the amount of time he was spending gambling would begin to preoccupy his mind and add 'pressure', he would then begin to rush to make money, sure enough, losses would follow - more than he won previously.  He would then work even harder than before and so on, in an ever deepening circle. 

As silly as this sounds,  it's probably unnervingly easy to get involved in.  We've all got to be smart in this regard, keep a balance between gambling and life, overbearing pressure coming from spending too much time gambling will then cease to be a potential problem.

October 11, 2007

The fixed tennis match, that never was.

It's a funny thing, the power of suggestion.  How someone or something can suggest it is one thing, only to be something else entirely.  Multiply this effect when basing judgement upon prior experience.  Now add in to the mix a few hundred people, all thinking or wondering the same thing with all the persuasive and herd like properties that carries, and you have a nice recipe for chaos and pandemonium.

Yesterdays match between Elena Dementieva and Patty Schnyder was one such affair, but crucially, only for those of us participating in the Betfair market.  You see, in the real world, there was nothing about this match that suggested anything strange at all. 

The match was conducted fairly on all real evidence.  It involved the usual amount of closely fought service games, double faults, tension and breaks of serve that you would expect from a match between these two players.  Dementieva running out the winner in straight sets 6-3 6-4.

Yet on Betfair, you could have been forgiven for thinking there was another match going on somewhere else between two players of the same names.  The odds bore no relation to what was really happening, just as they had in the Davydenko v Arguello match, and in another strange match between Mariya Koryttseva and Tatiana Poutchek (the Davydenko match is under investigation).  If you knew what you were looking at, the Betfair market for this match was probably as equally entertaining as the match itself.

Dementieva opened at a very approximate 1.75 - a slight favourite, rightly so, though perhaps not as strong a favourite as she might have been if it wasn't for a lacklustre win against Molik the round previous. 

What proceeded to happen next was a real mystery, and still is.  A procession of money for Schnyder began early in the match, and continued through the entire match pretty much.  Even when Dementieva went a break up in the first set, the extent to which the money had come for Patty meant that Dementieva was now odds against, even though she as ahead!   This was still the case after winning the set 6-3, aparently she was 10% less likely to win the match according to the odds, even though she was 1-0 up!  Very wrong odds indeed.

Bets of £20,000, £30,000 and £40,000 appeared numerous times backing Patty and laying Elena.  It's bets of these sizes which cause chaos in weak 2nd round tennis markets, getting this sort of size of bet matched is not an easy task, and they really did want to get them matched!  Offering odds against on a favourite who is winning, will do that to some degree.  People like myself will feel unable to pass them up, the rest of the people in the market will be scared into believing the money knows something and that it is fixed.   And indeed, in light of  the amount of money yesterday, this is what the majority of ordinary punters believed was happening.

Tennis is a nice sport to bet on, but it's equally attractive to those that like to trade odds back and forth.  (Traders far out number punters in general on Betfair these days.)  Most traders, especially those with lesser experience and knowledge, rely upon the (normally fairly predictable) reactions of others to the scoreline  - tennis' scoring structure  produces a rough mathematical guide to which the prices should follow to some extent, add in market supply and demand and you can come up with ball park guesses of where the price will move to next.

This is good in a perfect World, but we live in a random World, a World where one person can change the entire face of a market and throw out the expectations of a large group of people.  People who are used to reacting to prices, people who had no intention of investing for the long haul, who only have a certain amount of pain they can take from a price not living up to expectations.  Nowhere in the rules does it say someone can't come into a market and do whatever the hell they want, regardless of the level of (none)sense it would appear to involve.  Reactive traders tend to conveniently forget this.

When one person decided they would have a series of very large bets, at what were crazy odds (in the rest of the markets eyes), chaos very quickly descended upon the market place.  The first cry of "Fix" didn't take long to appear on the Betfair forum.  Soon after, those that thought the first large bet must have been a mistake were clambering to get out of their bets on Dementieva for fear of a fixed match. Now it wasn't just the big player that wanted on Schnyder, the numbers of traders fearing the worst was increasing and so was Dementieva's price - rapidly.

During the 2nd set, Schnyder's price to win the match got down to below 1.4 - 72% chance of winning, despite being a set down in the match!  It seemed the fix was inevitable to most, but the match went on totally unaware of what was happening between a few hundred people on the internet.

When Dementieva broke to lead in the 2nd set, it began to dawn that we'd all been watching something that wasn't happening at all.  The bubble quickly broke on the Betfair market and prices quickly snapped towards where they really should have been, Dem winning in the end - not without one or two more moments of market panic.

Questions remain as to what happened.  Who was the mystery punter with serious amounts of money to seemingly throw at players?  Why did they do this?

Dementieva took an injury time out in her previous match v Molik, did someone know something about the injury and it's seriousness?  Did they over estimate the impact it might have?

Is this the same person that bet on the other matches with strange betting patterns and where is all their money coming from?  They surely aren't doing very well this week...  and if you were a match fixer - wouldn't you throw in some bad looking weeks just to make yourself look genuine enough?  Fixers trading amongst themselves?

Few will ever know, but a few things are certain, this match wasn't fixed, and not every match that has strange betting patterns is fixed. 

Given this, what do you with that knowledge?  Yesterday I took on the money and gambled that the match was not fixed.  I took a good bet on Dementieva, everything I look for suggested she was a good bet, and to have such incredible odds on offer, I had to bet an amount I was ok with losing in such a situation. 

I didn't believe either Patty or Elena were players that would be interested in fixing matches, though I don't know them personally - they are two high profile players with great histories in the sport, I would be amazed if they would want to threaten their reputations.

If you are the trader type then, get out and leave alone - particularly if you are thinking 'fix', it will play with your mind and make you do things you never would normally.  Move onto another match.  The most important thing anyone (but particularly traders) can take away from this match is the fact that it only takes one person to change a market.  No one has to conform to any pattern of odds or behaviour in a free market place - plan accordingly and beware of the expected!

October 04, 2007

Wanting to win...

...is similar to wanting to be rich.  A desire to win, or be wealthy, is fine in theory, but how is this going to be achieved?  How many people that want to be wealthy actually take the brave step of starting their own business and putting their energy into the process.  A desire to win is not enough, in fact, in gambling, it can be a hinderance.

The key is what you focus your desire on.  Wanting money as a gambler can be a disasterous idea.  It can make you forget, or not focus on, the things that really matter - how to win, how to improve, what really went wrong and what you've been doing right.  Furthermore, it can make you chase the money, betting too big for your bank, or getting overly attached to the money that you have lost.  Massive mental errors (and losses) could potentially occur.

The correct thing to desire, is to 'get better' at what you are doing.  Regardless of whether you do in fact 'get better', this attitude alone will give you a massively improved chance of success.

A lot of sports commentators are quick to suggest that a player "really wants to win", or "they want it more" / "want it badly".  That works in sports, but in the market for the match, you can't "want it more" than the other 1000 people you are betting against.  What you can do though, if you really do harbour that desire, is focus that energy into how you are doing things.  Give yourself targets relating to the process rather than how much you want to make or thinking about what you want to have in the bank come Christmas.  Make 'learning' your biggest "want".  Those who stop learning, are left behind.

Someone at Betfair having a laugh.

Wangking_2

In case you were wondering, it's a tennis match, Wang v King.

October 03, 2007

A good read...

Just thought I'd point a few readers in the direction of a really good blog written by someone making some great strides in the right direction with their trading.  Well done Mark Iverson, keep up the great work with your blog. 

A lot of what he writes reminds me of the issues and learning curve I went through a few years ago, one great thing readers can take form his blog is the importance of staying in 'learning mode'.  Remain aware and vigilant regardless of winning or losing, learn from what you did right and analyse things that went wrong - Mark's good at this, let's hope he continues to keep doing the same, the financial rewards are definitely deserved.

"Money you don't lose is just as real as money that you win." - Roy Cooke

"Money you don't lose now, is money you don't have to win back later." - Larry Phillips.

"The dollar you keep from losing on a losing day is the same dollar you add to a win on a winning day." - Mike Caro.

Fail to understand these quotes and you will fail as a gambler.  They work on so many levels;

  • Not losing, not doing anything in fact, is just as powerful as winning. 
  • Money management is not something you can dare ever dismiss or put aside and come back to. 
  • Don't let your ego stop you from admitting you were wrong - cut that loss, move on.
  • If there's no bet in the match, don't 'try' to find one, you never 'have to' have a bet.
  • It's fairly important to stay routed in reality - obvious to most, but not to gamblers at times.

It's worth thinking over these quotes a for a while, how many times have we all followed bad bets by more of the same?  Or got involved when we shouldn't have?  How much has this cost?