Punt.com - A Blog About Gambling by a Professional Gambler.

Has Radek Stepanek been eating other players' brains?

Has anyone seen Martina Hingis lately ?  Someone should make sure she's ok, perhaps she was affraid her skull will be removed by Sylar... I mean... Radek, hence the split.  He's playing so well at the moment, you have to wonder whether he's stolen her powers, or for that matter, who else's powers he's been stealing lately.  He's playing some amazing tennis, currently 2 sets to 1 up against that other Hero - Novak Djokovic.

PS. If you don't know what I'm on about then you need to start watching Heroes on TV, definitely a Punt.com favourite at the moment.

5 clues that a tennis match is fixed.

Given the recent focus on fixed matches on the ATP tour, I thought I'd write a piece about some of the signs of a fixed match.  This is by no means an exhaustive list, just 5 pointers to raise suspicions and importantly - raise enough doubt for those of us that bet on tennis to give it the swerve.

1 & 2, "Irregular betting patterns" before the match begins.  Most fixed matches will involve an amount of money being put down before it begins.  This is when liquidity should be at it's strongest - the odds being based on form, surface, physical condition, head to heads etc.  Liquidity being provided by bookmakers and betting exchanges, there's plenty of scope for a lot of money to be wagered on many different websites.

Things you should look for are;

• Larger than normal movements in odds.  Not just on who will win the match, but sometimes in the set score markets too.  It's fairly common for a player to be told to work towards a 3 set match rather than a straights sets win - money can be made just by altering the story of the match.  It's not usual for the odds to move a bit pre match in line with normal supply and demand.  Odds that move in excess of 15% are unusual and are either injury related, a very strong opinion expressed by one or more big players or signs of something untoward.  Clearly there is a need to stay on top of injury information.  The larger the move in odds pre match then the more serious the injury or the more fixed it might look.
• Markets being closed by bookies.  This is an unusual move from the bookmakers - what it is showing is that they have taken a large amount of money on one player or outcome and are of the opinion that this is suspicious: ordinarily they would continue to keep it open but just move their odds to make the other side of their books more attractive.

3, Odds during match bear no resemblance to the match itself.  There are certain movements in the odds during a tennis match which can't be argued against, unless a player is injured in some way. 

Using the Davydenko v Vassallo-Arguello match as an example.  A player that wins the first set comfortably (6-2 in Davydenko's case) without sign of injury should have his odds considerably shorter to win the match (perhaps 25-40% of what they were at the beginning).  In the case of that controversial match, Davydenko's odds were longer after set 1, even though he was cruising the match, injury free - it made no sense at all, other than someone knew what was about to happen.

This was only acheived with the help of a great deal of money being put on his opponent, thus soaking up the money that wanted to back Denko at these seemingly crazy odds.  Odds that don't conform roughly to the laws of probability are unusual.

4, Large amounts of one sided money during the match.  This in itself is not unusual, there's plenty of big punters in these markets, some will take a view.  It's also the case that in order to get all of this money on, they have to be agressive and sometimes go against the run of play slightly.  It's the extent and the timing of this seemingly contrarian view which needs consideration.  No respectable big player will give away "value", that's why they are having their bet.

Question things if large amounts of money go through at odds that are out of line with where the market has been trading, especially if the player being layed is doing well.  Of course, some degree of proof that these people were ahead of the game wil only arrive when it's too late for the rest of us, and even then, everyone makes mistakes or takes views occaisionally - if we're honest this is a hard one to prove a fix with.

5, The players act strangely.  Another difficult one to question, we're all human and prone to bouts of unpredictability.  If everyone was predictable this game would be rather easy wouldn't it.  A few things to consider;

• Players form during the match takes a larger than understandible turn.  Particularly if up already in the match.  Watch for numbers of unforced errors and double faults.
• Strange injuries that are not obvious during open play, with injury time outs taken at very odd times of the match - for example, when the player is winning - why interupt your own rhythm.
• Player body language, looks "bothered" at some points and not at others.  Entering very subjective areas here, it's very tough to call this correctly.

What some of this information should have told you is that it can be very difficult at times to decide whether a match is being fixed or not.  In fact I would go as far as saying that any of these 5 clues on their own is not enough to prove anything, it's when they happen together and in sequence that suspicion is raised.  One might add that a player's nationality could offer further clues.  It would appear players from Argentina, Russia and Italy are more likely to be suspect. 

The timeline of activity is the important factor here.  Money needs to be wagered in size - against the flow of the match or in highly liquid conditions, before the fix is executed on the court.  And even when this does happen - there is always the chance that this is an unfortunate coincidence.  The amount of money and the probability of the action that's taking place on the court has to be weighed carefully.

With so many matches under scrutiny, it's very easy to call "fix" when you are looking for it.  So don't look for it.  When it happens, it's very obvious.  Looking for it will affect your betting actions.  Normal decisions and reasoning won't be happening - you may even be trying to guess the fix.  It's asking for trouble.  If you suspect something, the right course of action is to stop betting on that match and move on.

Big Brother betting.

I thought I'd write a post about a totally different subject, for my comeback entry.  Betting on Big Brother.  Contrary to many opinions, it's actually possible to make a a profit from this program.  The question is, can you really be bothered ?!

I've been a Big Brother punter for 5 years, I had some big wins the year of Jade Goody, since then I've not bet as often on it due to lack of interest, until this year, when I had my largest ever "BB" bet early in the series on Brian to win (I've now squared this off to win on the twins too).

There's a couple of ways to make money in this, both require knowledge of the show, and unfortunately - watching the show!  (At least fairly often.)  You can trade on small price movements, or you can take a punt on the winner - using a series of intelligent guesses on several different factors.  Personally, I like the 2nd method, you can make serious money doing it and potentially - you don't need to watch the show as much - a real bonus!

In the old days I would trade the movements, looking for someone to have a good or bad show and gauging viewer and market sentiment.  Using clever strategies to get in and out.  There's a few things you need to consider with this method.

One, it's a weak market place, liquidity might look reasonable, but it's completely opinion based.  What this means is, there's little concrete evidence of what the prices really should be - no statistics here, it's opinion v opinion.  The market can move quickly, on the whim of a single person if they care to have a good bet.

There seems many people out there unwilling to acknowledge this fact, some even unhappy that a big player can move the market in this way.  Don't make the same mistake!  It's a fact of life in this market (and any market for that matter) that 'anything can happen' - meaning, it only takes one person with a slightly bigger bank and a strong opinion to shift prices and throw out your trade.  As someone who bets bigger than most in this market, let me tell you I enjoy doing this and watching people moan about it afterwards.

Perhaps I'm not executing these bets as well as I might - but I'm certainly having fun, and surely if you are going to have a financial interest in something like BB, then you want to be enjoying it in some way.  The forum is full of people who take it deadly seriously, spending all day, everyday, writing propaganda and subtle ramping posts to try to shift the price that small amount so they can feel happier in themselves and with their position, or so that they can get out.  Several people write 50+ posts a day on this subject, some fix Internet viewer polls... one can only presume it's a bit of a sad existence for 13 weeks a year.

How might I execute these bets better ?  By drip feeding.  Spending time (hours or days if it's a big bet) posting up multiple layers and depths of smallish bets in the hope that they'll get matched without scaring the market.  Time, is the factor here.  Quite honestly, I can't be bothered.

There's another point to make here.  And that is, if you bet big into this market, people take notice. 

Some people will react angrily and egotistically.  Especially if it's a big player who has the opposite opinion, it can trigger a reaction from them and you'd be surprised how often I've had big bets matched in such a weak market - masses of drip feeding time saved!

Others will be angry but not have the money to do anything about it.  They're angry about having their position messed up or that their drip feeding has been ruined, they'll most likely call you a mug or a show off.  What is happening though, is that it's making people notice and most of all - reassess their opinion of the price and the person being backed or layed, and that's quite powerful, especially if you time it well and hit a nerve.

As you can see, I'm quite biased towards the punting strategy in this market, it's because I feel it's the only way to make serious money from it.  The market and forums are full of people trading backwards and forwards, attempting to read where the price is going to be in an hour, tonight, on Friday or in 3 weeks etc.  Sometimes the market is only moving because these people expect it to.  I can't justify spending the amount of time required to make that strategy work.

So how do I go about picking a winner ?  I think it's important that you've watched the show in previous years.  You need experience of how the viewing public look at contestants, and how the viewing public's views mature from week to week and series to series.  You need experience of how how various personalities and actions are viewed and interpreted.

This idea of a maturing viewing public is important.  Many times it is a case of the wider audience being "ready" for someone or a type of person to win and be accepted.  For example, a Black housemate has never won the show, yet.  Race, sexuality and gender are 3 of the obvious variables that you must gauge readiness for.  Many times, this is a case of looking at who has previously won the show and looking for a type of person that has never won before.  Proven, stereotypical winners are, in this case, less likely to win as the show goes on in the medium term - we are still on BB8, if we were in BB25, then maybe you could argue otherwise.  Here we have an audience keen on experiencing a new type of winner each year.

The production team.  Who do they want to win?  Who do they think the public are ready for?  Who are they going to help over the winning line with good edits for 13 weeks and who will they keep in for entertainment and most importantly - viewing figures?  Vital questions.  If you watch the live feed and compare it to the edited highlight show, you'll begin to see who they favour.  Thankfully I have other people's opinions on which to go on and I don't have to watch the live feed!

Whether you are trading or punting, you need to consider your opinion very carefully if it opposes what the producers are doing in terms of edits.  Short term moves in price might be fine, but you will soon find yourself and the rest of the market being forced to move with how the highlights show is being put together.  Can you stand that pain?  What the producers want is arguably the most important thing you need to figure out to win, they can virtually make an unlikly winner out of anyone they choose. 

Just thought I'd get a few ideas down on the blog about this unusual market.  If you don't like the show - avoid at all costs, you will be forced into watching it, perhaps even into posting meaningless rubbish onto Big Brother forums and in the very worst cases - watching the live feed!