Big Brother betting.

I thought I'd write a post about a totally different subject, for my comeback entry.  Betting on Big Brother.  Contrary to many opinions, it's actually possible to make a a profit from this program.  The question is, can you really be bothered ?!

I've been a Big Brother punter for 5 years, I had some big wins the year of Jade Goody, since then I've not bet as often on it due to lack of interest, until this year, when I had my largest ever "BB" bet early in the series on Brian to win (I've now squared this off to win on the twins too).

There's a couple of ways to make money in this, both require knowledge of the show, and unfortunately - watching the show!  (At least fairly often.)  You can trade on small price movements, or you can take a punt on the winner - using a series of intelligent guesses on several different factors.  Personally, I like the 2nd method, you can make serious money doing it and potentially - you don't need to watch the show as much - a real bonus!

In the old days I would trade the movements, looking for someone to have a good or bad show and gauging viewer and market sentiment.  Using clever strategies to get in and out.  There's a few things you need to consider with this method.

One, it's a weak market place, liquidity might look reasonable, but it's completely opinion based.  What this means is, there's little concrete evidence of what the prices really should be - no statistics here, it's opinion v opinion.  The market can move quickly, on the whim of a single person if they care to have a good bet.

There seems many people out there unwilling to acknowledge this fact, some even unhappy that a big player can move the market in this way.  Don't make the same mistake!  It's a fact of life in this market (and any market for that matter) that 'anything can happen' - meaning, it only takes one person with a slightly bigger bank and a strong opinion to shift prices and throw out your trade.  As someone who bets bigger than most in this market, let me tell you I enjoy doing this and watching people moan about it afterwards.

Perhaps I'm not executing these bets as well as I might - but I'm certainly having fun, and surely if you are going to have a financial interest in something like BB, then you want to be enjoying it in some way.  The forum is full of people who take it deadly seriously, spending all day, everyday, writing propaganda and subtle ramping posts to try to shift the price that small amount so they can feel happier in themselves and with their position, or so that they can get out.  Several people write 50+ posts a day on this subject, some fix Internet viewer polls... one can only presume it's a bit of a sad existence for 13 weeks a year.

How might I execute these bets better ?  By drip feeding.  Spending time (hours or days if it's a big bet) posting up multiple layers and depths of smallish bets in the hope that they'll get matched without scaring the market.  Time, is the factor here.  Quite honestly, I can't be bothered.

There's another point to make here.  And that is, if you bet big into this market, people take notice. 

Some people will react angrily and egotistically.  Especially if it's a big player who has the opposite opinion, it can trigger a reaction from them and you'd be surprised how often I've had big bets matched in such a weak market - masses of drip feeding time saved!

Others will be angry but not have the money to do anything about it.  They're angry about having their position messed up or that their drip feeding has been ruined, they'll most likely call you a mug or a show off.  What is happening though, is that it's making people notice and most of all - reassess their opinion of the price and the person being backed or layed, and that's quite powerful, especially if you time it well and hit a nerve.

As you can see, I'm quite biased towards the punting strategy in this market, it's because I feel it's the only way to make serious money from it.  The market and forums are full of people trading backwards and forwards, attempting to read where the price is going to be in an hour, tonight, on Friday or in 3 weeks etc.  Sometimes the market is only moving because these people expect it to.  I can't justify spending the amount of time required to make that strategy work.

So how do I go about picking a winner ?  I think it's important that you've watched the show in previous years.  You need experience of how the viewing public look at contestants, and how the viewing public's views mature from week to week and series to series.  You need experience of how how various personalities and actions are viewed and interpreted.

This idea of a maturing viewing public is important.  Many times it is a case of the wider audience being "ready" for someone or a type of person to win and be accepted.  For example, a Black housemate has never won the show, yet.  Race, sexuality and gender are 3 of the obvious variables that you must gauge readiness for.  Many times, this is a case of looking at who has previously won the show and looking for a type of person that has never won before.  Proven, stereotypical winners are, in this case, less likely to win as the show goes on in the medium term - we are still on BB8, if we were in BB25, then maybe you could argue otherwise.  Here we have an audience keen on experiencing a new type of winner each year.

The production team.  Who do they want to win?  Who do they think the public are ready for?  Who are they going to help over the winning line with good edits for 13 weeks and who will they keep in for entertainment and most importantly - viewing figures?  Vital questions.  If you watch the live feed and compare it to the edited highlight show, you'll begin to see who they favour.  Thankfully I have other people's opinions on which to go on and I don't have to watch the live feed!

Whether you are trading or punting, you need to consider your opinion very carefully if it opposes what the producers are doing in terms of edits.  Short term moves in price might be fine, but you will soon find yourself and the rest of the market being forced to move with how the highlights show is being put together.  Can you stand that pain?  What the producers want is arguably the most important thing you need to figure out to win, they can virtually make an unlikly winner out of anyone they choose. 

Just thought I'd get a few ideas down on the blog about this unusual market.  If you don't like the show - avoid at all costs, you will be forced into watching it, perhaps even into posting meaningless rubbish onto Big Brother forums and in the very worst cases - watching the live feed!   

Comments

[Andy Croll]

Bizarrely I've got sucked into watching this the last couple of years, on and off, toward the end of the series each time.

It's surprising how parochial it is seen from overseas, given that it blankets the popular media in the UK it's actually a little unusual to know its happening but not to even know who the characters are.

The world is a pleasingly big place if you're actually able to escape Big Brother simply by moving continents. Not that it was our main reason for going but... :-)

[the_mgt]

Great thread, sir and very well played.I witnessed your recovery from a marginally sticky possy at first hand.
My strategy is an old man's strategy.I pay an inordinate amount of attention to all the side markets and the spreads and the bookies and use the main market on Betfair as a dustbin.
In fact it is only today that my action in that market has a +EV.
I just like to have offsetting bets that show a small profit.Arbs and quasi arbs are my stock in trade.I do like to back a 'biggun' in the almost sure knowledge of a good edit two days down the line.
Finally I must confess to being a BB addict in the middle stages of the show but always get bored at the end.

the_mgt.