I'm worried about Roger. I think he's showing the first signs of losing his mental game. He'll need to get this right quickly, before the brain rot he's suffering from takes too much of a hold - See Mr. Coria for an example of that. I'm not saying Roger will suddenly disappear, but it's sad to see Roger suffering like this.
Mistimed shots. Lost Sets and Lost Matches. Dropped Service games and opponents that now see him as "beatable". Roger is worried about them all. I'm not a mind reader, but his body language really does tell a story this week. I don't think I've ever seen so much emotion from Roger. During yesterday's match with Carlos Moya, we had slumped shoulders, cries and shouts of anguish, fist pumping and even a smile! In the past we were lucky to get a half mumbled "come on".
There's a battle taking place in his head. He's trying to forget his worries and play whilst putting them to the back of his mind. The problem is, he's tense. These mistimed shots bring all the worries to the front of his mind. One bad shot is taking Roger 15+ good shots to put right, such is the dent to his confidence. Hit 2 in a row and you can almost give the game away. I imagine it to be a bit like trying to hold a float under water, eventually it slips out of your grasp and pops up to the surface again. He'll need to fill it with water to sink the problems completely.
For a gambler, the important point here is that he's become unpredictable. There's 2 or 3 different Roger Federer's showing up in each match. His match against Monaco for example, loses the 2nd set amidst a barrage of unforced errors, somehow holds on in the early part of the 3rd, then from nowhere finishes it off very quickly when in sight of the finish line. His next match v Ferrero was the old Federer, incredible tennis, Juan-Carlos had next to no chance of ever winning that match. His quarter and semi final matches v Ferrer and Moya were similar stories - a mixture of great shots and awful shots, with no way knowing what's coming next.
He's a dangerous guy to bet on. His match stats rarely match up to what his odds suggest they should be at the end of the match. His prices are short, but there's a factor that might well make the prices right. And that is, do his opponents believe they can beat "Roger Federer"? His name still carries influence over the other players. Not only do they need to perform, but they need to think they can win. I'm not sure they do. Yet.
One player that doesn't suffer with that is Rafa Nadal. They meet again today in the final. Most readers will know my dislike for giving out tips, so please don't see this as one...but... 1.38 on Nadal looks a gift. Cue Roger playing the match of his life, no unforced errors / ridiculous drop shots from 25ft behaind the baseline etc. Good luck today, at the time of writing, I have not had a bet on the match.
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