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March 01, 2007

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g.clucas

First things first, i have only just found your blog courtesy of 'the betfair trader' and i have to say at first glance i'm impressed! It's great to see so much discussion on the Psychological aspects of trading which i think fail to demand the attention required by the average punter. I have not read through the entire blog yet, but i fully intend on doing so.

Anyway a quick question that i put to the betfair trader, that he suggested i put to you.

Last night i was watching the Murray/Daveydenko match. Murray was broken in the first game of the match. Now the pre match price to back Murray was 1.75 after he got broken he was trading at 2.20. My question is surely this must be a value trade?
A pretty big shift in the fav's price as the result of one poor game and the first in the match, surely that does not warrant that kind of movement? Your opinion appreciated.

Lokking forward to your responce and having a read through this excellent blog!

Matt

Hello, glad you found the blog and thanks to the Betfairtrader for sending you my way. He's a nice chap over there. I hope you've enjoyed the rest of the blog and apologies for the slow reply, it's not gone unnoticed, just a few niggling things occuring away from the PC at the moment leaving me only time to work and not much energy left to put into the blog. It's nice to have another tennis trader reading..

The murray / davy match I did well on this week. And you would be right in saying that that price moved way too much. Firstly in purely technical terms, it should not have moved to that price. And secondly / thirdly - it's the first game of the match, and it's Murray that is serving.

First game of the match - he's still warming up, and so is Davy to some extent. Murray is known as not the greatest server in the world (though he is improving). More importantly, Murray IS one of the game's best returners of serve - and that's what he is doing next game, on a still to warm up Davy service action. Being first game in the set means Murray has plenty of go's at breaking Davy back.

That said, the price is indeed value on Murray but not massively. I would take a position on it, but not a huge one. More likely I would be looking for greater value on him if Davy took a string of points in the next game. This would leave me with value, with a large upside if Murray came back to win the set and a bit less of a downside if Davy took it. As it happened Murray took it, but was still tremendous value at end of first set, so I ran the position out. Thank you Mr. Murray !

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