Punt.com - A Blog About Gambling by a Professional Gambler.

Betfair's monopoly will eventually end..

..Even if you can't imagine right now how this would occur, something will eventually come along to topple the giant.   Inspired by an excellent small post by Cassini at Green All Over (where he gives examples of few fallen giants) I thought I'd add my 2p in the hope that someone will take the up the mantle. (btw I have a cracking domain name if you have the right idea ;)

What will eventually topple Betfair does not necessarily need to be completely different (just in the right areas).  As their website grew, they moved further away from their original idea.  Their decision making process became messy, resulting in poor choices in usability, cost, design, customer service and regulation - the number of areas upon which improvements can be offered by a rival increases, as do the grievances of the current userbase (see Premium Charge, Cross Matching etc. as Cassini pointed out).

What is required IMO is a return to, and improvement upon, what the exchange concept was always about, betting person to person.  Of course Betfair is still doing this, but they increasingly push their alternative products, where they take a much greater share of the profits.  This aside, there are innovations to be made in the way people bet with one another, the way markets are set up and the social aspect of the site.  I have a few ideas, but I won't be posting them here.

One thing I am more than happy to post is that any rival would do well to push for much better regulation.  A site that actively seeks the same restrictions (or a variation) placed upon FSA regulated exchanges would be a leap in the right direction.  Best practices must surely involve not placing bets on your own exchange (even if it is hedging multiples), not compromising on best execution (cross matching) - exploiting your own platform's short-comings for profit.  Conflicts of interest (or potential conflicts of interest) need to be banished, as does this ability to switch between Bookmaker and Exchange at will, exchanges are very different to the former and should be treated as such.

We all brush these issues aside currently because liquidity is king,  but undercurrent builds with each step Betfair takes at the moment.  I met recently with one of the top guy's at Betfair, I mentioned that the users were disillusioned with the experience.  I told him we need some good news, a step in the right direction... It's overdue.  Perhaps a rebate on PC, or indeed a change in the way the charge is set up.. or frankly anything that is good for users would be helpful (when was the last time we had good news from BF ?).  Hope you took it on board.

There will come a day when something more exciting and interesting to use will arrive.  Something that experienced users see potential for profit in, at the same time as casual users have real enjoyment using.  When that day arrives, the switch away from Betfair will most probably be quicker than they could imagine.

Epic Wimbledon Final.

The statistics..

Roger Federer v. Andy Roddick
5-7, 7-6, 7-6, 3-6, 16-14.

(Federer - Roddick)
Aces:  50 - 27

1st Serve %: 63 - 69

% Won on 1st Serve: 83 - 89

% Won on 2nd Serve: 57 - 41

Winners: 107 - 74

Unforced Errors: 38 - 33

Break Point Conversions: 1/7 - 2/5

Total Points: 223 - 213

Duration: 256 Minutes

Total traded on Betfair: £53,079,714

Dear Betfair..

I'd very much like to be able to see my profit and loss statement today, thank you! 

It seems many of us have been unable to access this most vital of website sections for much of today.  Along with trouble loading the market navigation bar, it's been a sticky day on their website.

The "geezer brigade" quarters..

Much being made today about how old the 4 guys are left in the quarter finals at Wimbledon, the oldest for 35 years.  There's some potential in these matches today, it's just a same that they clash in the schedule.  The same went for yesterday's ladies quarters - I always forget how anti-climatic these days are, you've been watching it til 9:30pm the previous 8 days and suddenly it gets to 5:30pm and there's nothing doing.  Hopefully the men's matches will last a little longer.

I'm still trying to figure out what I'm doing with my large green on Karlovic outright, I also on Federer, so whoever comes out of that quarter I'm doing well on.  I will probably square it off to some extent.  It's always a tough match up for Federer this one, you don't get many chances against Karlovic, but the chances he does get he should take without any trouble.  There's always a tendency to think that it's an even contest, a serving lottery.  But the fact is, if Federer gets the return in (and he is one of the best at reading an opponent's serve) then he is a heavy favourite to win that point, and that tips the balance of pressure onto Karlovic rather than Fed.  Price has this factored in though, so lets wait and see.

Hewitt's played some of his best tennis for years in the last week, but Roddick is also playing great.  No opinion on scoreline here, just hoping for a great match.  Apparently Andy and Brooklyn have been sleeping on the floor due to an overly soft mattress during the whole of Wimbledon... you'd think they could afford somewhere nice to stay! ..or a new matress.

Hoping for great things from the Haas / Djokovic match up, though I think Djoko is playing much better at Wimbledon than he did at Halle where Haas got the better of him.  I get the feeling he might run away with it, but Tommy seems inspired at the moment.

I don't see Murray having too much trouble versus the green clay specialist (!) JCF.  But you never know.

So there you have it, 4 match previews, and not an opinion in sight.  Guess I better put down some scoreline predictions, maybe you can average these with what the other blogs are suggesting for some sort of collective wisdom.  I won't be betting on these btw.

Federer - Karlovic : 3-0
Djokovic - Haas : 3-2
Roddick - Hewitt : 5 sets, trainer called to court.
Murray - Ferrero : 3-0

The Wimbledon roof and a hoax £20m winner.

No blog entries for a little while, you were probably thinking I'd disappeared again.  It's been a busy week, maybe my busiest of the year, anyone getting the time to post blog entries as well as trade for 10 hours a day has my admiration for the their dedication... They also spend too long on the computer!

Yesterday saw the first 'in-play' usage of the World's most expensive roof at Wimbledon.  Though they were a little hasty in closing it.  The Wimbledon cheeses must have been like kids with a new toy, it was always going to get closed at the first drop of rain, the Chairman probably had his finger hovering over the button as the first cloud appeared. 

To then keep it closed for the rest of the day was a surprise, but they got lucky when Murray's match went on longer than might have been expected (Wawrinka played well, but never took half the chances he might have).  I have to say I got the feeling the roof affected Murray to begin with, his pre-match (mental) prep would have been for an open roof, his 'onboard computer' (as Sam Smith would commentate) taking a while to figure out the change in conditions - Set one over.

So we ended up with the first 'night match' at Wimbledon.  The acoustics were completely different, very loud and echoey, perfect for creating a great atmosphere for the home favourite.  They should do more night matches imo, it was quite a spectacle.  Will they?  I doubt it... The company line is that it is an outdoor tournament.

I thought that it was perhaps a little easier for the server inside, the speed of the court looked the same though - incredibly slow!   Or maybe it's just me, but the courts look to be playing slower than ever this year.  I tweeted (Follow Me) a day or two ago that I don't buy into the courts getting quicker as they get older.  The ball simply bounces higher, the dryness allowing more spin to take grip and thus the ball 'sits up' - they get slower the deeper into the tournament we go.  I would think they are slower than the US Open quite easily.  Much is made of the change from Roland Garros clay to Wimbledon grass , it's not so much the speed anymore, it's the height of the bounce and the type of bounce.  I seem to recall a 27 stroke rally in Murray's first game yesterday!

Onto our £20m hoax in the News of the World!  This was great if you caught it, unfortunately the story has now been taken down from the NotW website, because it is fiction!  (They don't print fiction do they?)  Anyone who read the story with any knowledge would have spotted this anyway, it was laughable.  You can catch up with some of the claims made by the millionaire over at Scott's blog, along with the statement made by Betfair in response.

Ladies quarters today, I don't have much opinion on the matches, other than Venus should destroy Aggie Radwanska.  I'm concerned that Azarenka could push Serena, though I'm on both of them outright, most of it is on Serena, I see this as her toughest test next to Venus, though I am fairly confident Serena would take care of a match with her Sister.

My men's outright book is looking good.  I backed Roger at the the start, as well as Murray, Hewitt and Karlovic.  Got out of Murray yesterday, having traded back and forth on him through the tournament, I'm a little surprised he has remained around 4.1, yesterday wasn't a confidence builder, though I think the general sentiment is that he'll have less difficulty with Ferrero than Wawrinka.  I'm not sure on that one, JCF is loving the slow courts.

Market also looks to have some concerns with Karlovic and Fed.  Which is good for me, I will look to do something with my very large green on Karlovic at some point.  Happy trading..

Late start to Wimbledon for me.

I missed the first days play at Wimbledon, because I went to watch!  (Thanks to Betfair for the invite - you still won't get any favours from me on here though ;)  So it was a free day out, but was it really free?  Probably not, it was most definitely expensive - with the biggest and most profitable tournament of the year on terrestrial TV, this is where I have made the most for the last 4/5 years.  So, it wasn't an easy decision to go, but I do believe it is good karma to enjoy the spoils, there's an awful lot of people that would kill to get onto center court.  Though apparently not some of the people in the box who had the US Open golf on, shocking!

Anyway, it's day 2 already, and I'm not even warmed up.  I have an outright pick in the ladies after seeing her play yesterday, I can't see anyone getting past Serena, 3.8 yesterday was good enough for me (3.65 now).  In the men's I'm on Fed and Murray from last week, Fed's price progressing well, Murray slightly backwards.

I watched Djokovic take on Benneteau yesterday, he looks a little fragile mentally at times, his body language was not confident in the first two sets, after that Benne got tired and Djoko's fitness looked unusually good.  Effortless in the end, but lacked a lot when compared to Fed.

So many matches today, but first stop for me is the Chiropractor - is it me or do a lot of us bloggers have back problems?  And isn't David Ferrer a little short against Kevin Kim (1.15/16) ?  Maybe.

Another dodgy tennis match spells trouble.

I'm slow writing about this, the Hernandez v Koellerer match earlier in the week created quite a fuss in the media after some seriously dodgy betting patterns occured pre-match.  Some of the coverage was laughable (William Hill suggesting suspicions were aroused after a £4000 bet), but most of it was alarming for those of us honest in-running bettors.  This sort of thing only gives those who seek to limit in running betting more ammo.  Let's hope the integrity teams at the various bookies were able to trace those that placed the bets, though these things are incredibly difficult to prove.

Further excellent coverage and screenshots over at Scott's blog, Sportismadeforbetting.

Wimbledon draw, in case you missed it..

..(And it's quite likely you did miss it), was made "live" on their Twitter page.  I say "live", but some readers should be warned that some twitter feeds are delayed. ;) 

Seriously though, the biggest (and best) Grand Slam tennis event, publicising it's draw on twitter!?  You cannot be serious!?  Apparently they are.  What we received was a mangled, mis-typed bunch of around 7/8 select matches from the entire men's and women's draw.  Hardly professional, or informative.

In previous years we have at least heard the names coming out of the hat on Radio Wimbledon.  Even if we were treated to laughable commentary at the same time, this was vastly superior to this year's draw.  Surely this should be on TV, if they can show the FA cup draws, then surely Wimbledon, the BBC put such effort into their coverage, this should be a shoe-in.

Does anyone know who "Josh Goofa" is?  Or why on earth we were told that Safina could have a potential "showdown" with Vaidisova in the 2nd round?  Do they follow tennis?

Importantly, it seems Djokovic and Federer are in the same half, leaving Murray and the potentially injured Nadal in the other.  Nadal will announce whether he intends to play today after an exhibition match against Wawrinka.

New balls please!

Radio 4 programme on corruption in sports betting..

Interesting radio 4 programme on sports betting corruption and match fixing in football and tennis on bbc iplayer.  I'm listening in right now as I missed it last night.  I believe these programmes are available for the next 7 days, or maybe longer if they have changed their archiving policy.  Give it a listen.

Further reaction over at Green All Over, depending on what I hear I might add my own post here later.

Expect problems with expectations.

Something I've really noticed during the last few months (and from time to time in the past) are the problems that my own expectations cause me when I'm trading, and probably in other areas of life.  To expect is to open yourself to the unexpected!  Crazy how stupidly simple that is isn't it.. without expectations, there is no unexpected and thus a huge chunk of trading pain is removed.

I remember reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Taleb in which he would call negative experiences in the markets, emotional "pangs".  These I'm sure are very real, we've all suffered when we've lost, if you place enough attention on a price I'm sure it's possible to suffer a 'pang' on the loss of a single tic.  It struck me that, these really only occur when something doesn't live up to your expectations. 

Yet this is highly counter intuitive.  How do you enter a trade or a bet without some form of expectation?  The answer of course is from a probablistic mindset.  You reduce decisions down to their probabilities of going one way or the other, then compare the implied odds in the market.  That's easy to type, and not easy to do consistantly, whether you believe in it or not.

The above paragraph also suggests it's possible to gauge where the market will be at various times.  Another expectation which is rarely perfect, since markets (and the events they are based upon) are random entities.  Anyone / anything can destroy the position of the market in a blink... with this in mind, perhaps it's best we expect the unexpectable!  That way we'll still be in the right frame of mind to act appropriately when it happens.  And while we do that, do our level best to estimate those probabilities each time we enter a trade.